Inslee orders Washingtonians to stay at home to slow spread of coronavirus. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/inslee-to-hold-televised-address-monday-evening-to-announce-enhanced-strategies-on-covid-19/
There it is. Washington State is now officially in lockdown.
'Essential' businesses will stay open. You can still go for walks and be outside, you just have to stay six feet away from other people.
Seattle Coronavirus Assessment Network (pls boost)
To slow the spread of coronavirus (#COVID19), we need to learn more about it. That's where you come in. SCAN is testing both healthy and sick people to understand how the virus is spreading in King County. The findings will help our partners, including Public Health – #Seattle & King County, keep people informed and make the best possible, data-driven decisions to protect our community.
Boeing to close for fortnight starting Mar 25
BioGen Micro Combined Heat and Power System. http://stirling-tech.com/biogen/
This thing turns biomass (wood pellets, chips, agricultural waste) into electricity and hot water with a combination of a gassifier and a Stirling Cycle engine. This is awesome if it works well enough to be cost-competitive. I know I want one.
Burning biomass as a power source is entirely carbon neutral. Think of it as stored solar energy.
By the end of the fourth week from today the infected count is more than 3.8 million. At the end of two months it's more than 490 million; which is impossible because there aren't that many of us to infect.
At some point the Ro numbers will start dropping because you can't give the disease to someone who already has it – and most people will have it.
Unless, that is, it turns out recovered people do not gain immunity or the virus mutates.
And that's our math for today.
If we start with the 30,000 number and double every four days, in three weeks the count of infected will be 960,000 and, best case, around 10,000 dead.
If you have time, check my math as I did it pretty quickly.
Also note, this is not a prediction but a calculation based on one known figure (number of deaths). Even if I didn't miss an exponent or press a button one too many times this is purely speculative.
All of this comes with all kinds of caveats of course. Also, we likely have some number of coronavirus deaths reported as pneumonia and there's a lag between infection and death that isn't reflected in these numbers; where more people are getting infected at the same time people are dying.
And then there's the issue of what happens to the mortality rate when the hospitals become overloaded. It's likely low now because they aren't triaging. Yet.
As of tonight the reported #COVID19 deaths in the USA has reached ~300. The number tested positive is about 24k, but that isn't a useful number because we aren't doing enough testing.
However, the death count can be a good proxy for the number of infections, because you can work backward using the mortality rate to estimate infections.
Ready? Here's the math for different mortality rates:
* 1% : 30,000
* 2% : 15,000
* 3% : 10,000
Those arguing a 1% mortality rate better hope they're wrong.
Maybe iTunes is trying to tell me something. In the last ten minutes it has played:
* Necropolis - A Covenant of Thorns
* Heaven - Big Top Karma
* The Stench of Death - Noxious Emotion (currently playing)
And, yes, it is possible for someone who grew up in the '60s to enjoy Industrial music. You should see my collection of KMFDM T-shirts – all bought at shows.
You Run by 16 Volt just came up on shuffle and it feels like today's anthem to me. https://www.elyrics.net/read/0-9/16volt-lyrics/you-run-lyrics.html
Whenever you are past the edge, out in the wind, look for me.
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