Politics, Trump, Republican Decline 

> Is Trump’s ‘big lie’ Democrats’ big chance to entice Republican voters? While there were always some Republicans who resisted Trump’s takeover of their party, his 2016 victory suggested that their numbers were small enough the party could win without them. Not anymore. usatoday.com/story/opinion/202

Four years ago I predicted Trump's presidency would lead to the Republican party splitting into 'Tea Party' and 'Establishment' camps.'

[contd]

Politics, Trump, Republican Decline 

Really, I was whistling past the graveyard with that prediction. It was something that felt right to me, but I didn't have any solid data to support. IOW, not so much analysis as an expression of my anger at the GOP for letting Trump get the nomination and then backing him all the way.

It seems like I got it right anyway. (Broken clock correct twice a day effect?)

Only that wasn't all of it. The rest of my rash prediction?

[contd]

Politics, Trump, Republican Decline 

Here's what I said in 2017:

1. Republican Party would split

2. The 'Tea Party' faction would not have enough support to win national elections

3. The 'Establishment' faction would either align with or outright join establishment Democrats

4. Eventually the Democrats would split into 'Establishment' and 'Progressive' factions itself

5. In the end the USA gets two parties: one center-right and one progressive, plus a largely inconsequential rump GOP

[contd]

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Politics, Trump, Republican Decline 

If my silly unscientific prediction comes fully true, we can hope for a future where USA politics are more aligned with the rest of the world. In truth we are shifted far to the right compared to most developed countries.

As I've said before, the Democrats are not actually a liberal party. They are a center-right party in coalition with a liberal wing. And even the liberal wing consists of 'Progressive' and 'Socialist' factions.

Anyway, we can hope…

[fin]

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