Politics, Presidential Election, State Certification Deadlines 

There's a list of state certification deadlines here: cbsnews.com/news/when-do-state

Georgia certified today, with governor Kemp signing off; so Georgia is done. Of the remaining battleground states going to Biden, which Trump will attempt blocking certification, the dates are:

* Nov 23
- Michigan 16 EV
- Pennsylvania 20 EV

* Nov 30
- Arizona 11 EV

* Dec 1
- Nevada 6 EV
- Wisconsin 10 EV

[contd]

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Politics, Presidential Election, State Certification Deadlines 

The political makeup of the remaining battleground states:

* Michigan
- Gov D
- House R
- Senate R

* Pennsylvania
- Gov D
- House R
- Senate R

* Arizona
- Gov R
- House R
- Senate R

* Nevada
- Gov D
- House D
- Senate D

* Wisconsin
- Gov D
- House R
- Senate R

NOTE: Most of the Republican-controlled state legislatures are majorities of less than 4 seats.

[contd]

Politics, Presidential Election, State Certification Deadlines 

Trump needs 38 Electoral Votes to flip the election and no two of the remaining states add up to more than 36. This means he needs to (a) block certification and (b) convince the state legislatures in at least three states to ignore the votes of their citizens and throw the election to him – somehow bypassing the governor in all but one state.

Calling this play a 'long shot' isn't doing it justice.

[contd]

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Politics, Presidential Election, State Certification Deadlines 

So, how?

It's clear Nevada is off the table – and there aren't enough Electoral Votes to bother anyway.

Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are all states with Democratic governors and GOP-controlled legislatures; but not super-majorities capable of overriding a governor's veto. Only Arizona has both a GOP governor and legislature.

Short of something extra-constitutional, this is seems like an impossible quest.

[contd]

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Politics, Presidential Election, State Certification Deadlines 

I'm really scratching my head here. I can see three possibilities:

1. Trump is actually certifiably insane and believes he can win this

2. It's all about getting people to buy into the conspiracy theories

3. Extra-constitutional actions are coming, possibly driven by a Reichstag Fire event

Except it actually doesn't make any sense for (2) and (3). After all why bother trying to halt certification?

[contd]

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Politics, Presidential Election, State Certification Deadlines 

In those cases working to halt certification is extra effort with no payoff related to the end game. All they need do is keep pushing the conspiracy theories.

Only (1) actually fits the facts. But (1) also means we have an insane person who's insane goals are being actively pursued by his staff. All while chewing away at the foundations of our democracy.

I can't figure this out…

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