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Legg Mason Says Probability Of Recession Is Now At 50%. forbes.com/sites/lcarrel/2019/

Generally, but especially among conservatives, there is a narrative about how the is doing good. Yet, in real day-to-day terms it doesn't seem that way to me. I see too many folks struggling.

Based on my experience with economic downturns, it's felt to me like we were at the edge of a recession for at least the last two years. I guess some economists agree.

Warren Buffett is sitting on $128 billion, raising questions about whether the market is overvalued. cnbc.com/2019/11/29/buffett-si

One thing is clear, the smart money (like Buffet's) is not in the stock market right now, it's been pulled back into safer investments. (I did the same thing with my 401K funds two years ago.)

And yet the stock market appears to be doing well. I'm not sure how to read this, but it seems like unwarranted optimism to me.

It's also true the job numbers seem really good right now, approaching full employment in the US.

However, those numbers, and other economic indicators, are coming from an administration with a problematic relationship to the truth. If it turns out they've been cooking the books, and private investment has been snookered into keeping the stock market bullish, we won't get an simple economic downturn when it happens.

Instead we might be looking at a full-on crash.

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