The last couple of days have been beautiful mild weather. So I've been going out in the mid-afternoon, after it warms up, to work on my wood pile until my back starts to hurt.

Then I go down to the big fire pit, sit in a chair, and watch the sun drop below North Mountain. It's been very calming.

As my beard grows longer I'm reminded every time I eat why some people do that weird 'shave only your chin' beard thing.

I wish I was half as dedicated to anything as my dog is to deeply inhaling the smell of every single thing in the universe she can get her nose up against.

If there are Firefox developers here, I really would like help to resolve this bug related to WebExtensions and dialogs (alert/prompt/confirm):

alert/confirm/prompt dialogs do not work properly in the sidebar

Boost appreciated

It took me another couple of decades to realize sometimes, and especially for emotional pain, you can help just by being there and bringing your empathy. It doesn't actually fix anything, but somehow sharing the pain for a little while relieves the pain a bit for the person going through it.

Right now more of the world is going through some kind of physical or emotional pain than ever before in my lifetime.

I want you all to know I'm here to hold your hand. Are you here to hold mine?

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I've always been uncomfortable with people going through pain, whether physical or emotional. A big part of that is empathy: I can imagine myself in the same pain. Even when it is fictional pain in a book or a movie.

But there was another aspect of it that took me literally decades to understand: I want to fix things that are broken.

Sometimes another's pain may be fixed with a bandaid or the right words at the right time. But when there is nothing you can *do*? I feel the pain of uselessness.

My dog was lying on my feet under my desk. Then I farted. Now she's lying on the couch and side-eying me.

So the problem here is: although deaths are the best indicator we have, given how badly we've implemented testing, deaths are a 'trailing' indicator with at least a two week lag. Meaning the people dying now were probably exposed about two weeks ago. And that means if you calculate total cases and Ro from deaths the numbers you come up with are two weeks old.

And if you do something to reduce Ro (forex lockdowns) the results of your action do not show up for two weeks or more.

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Meanwhile the folks at the UW (who certainly know more than me about this) say we are looking at ~40k by April 16 (3 days after I'm calculating we hit that number) and 'only' a total of ~80k deaths by the end of July; which seems to assume a drastic reduction in Ro soon.

I'm a pessimist, yet I hope they are correct and my numbers are wildly off base. But in 'glass is half empty' terms the doubling rate has not changed in weeks, meaning neither has Ro. So?

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As of last night the total number of known* dead in the US passed 10,000.

At the current doubling rate (3 days) it will be >20k by Thursday. >40K a week from now. >300k in three weeks. >1m a week after that. That's more than a MILLION dead by early May.

I did the math twice and I'm having a difficult time wrapping my head around these numbers. We have to slow this thing down!

Stay inside. Do all the things. Don't die. Don't kill me.

It's barely past noon and I've already heard the third or 'difficulty breathing' callout of the day on my police scanner.

Margaret Burbidge, the astronomer who's work demonstrated how we are all made of "star-stuff," has passed at the age of 100. Here's a celebration of her life and work from last year in Sky & Telescope.

Personal, COVID-19 

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Personal, COVID-19 

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Personal, COVID-19 

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