Pinned post

I believe in:

* Rationalism

* Realism

* Occam's Razor

* The scientific method

Separately I believe the requires us to increase overall happiness by:

* Showing compassion, even for those we dislike

* Rejecting racism, fascism and authoritarianism in all forms

* Reducing inequality in all forms

* Letting people make their own mistakes/face their own consequences

And I believe the latter list takes precedence over the former. Life is not simply a 'Trolley problem."

Pinned post

If you are a Realist, there are three truisms that define the Universe. Learn them well and structure your choices and responses accordingly.

Otherwise life will disappoint you constantly…

1. Sturgeon's Law: "Ninety percent of everything is crap."

2. Murphy's Law: "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong."

3. Hofstadter's Law: "It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law."

There are family reasons for this, but growing up I thought it was *normal* to assume others would share your preferences; and in those cases where someone disabuses you of that notion, *normal* to insist they go along with you anyway because you are *sure* they will like it.

Looking around the world today, it seems like an awful lot of people are like that. I still don't know if it's 'normal', but it's not *abnormal*.

In any case? It's like gossip: *normal*, yet not *good*.

Alex Jones, Medical Record Trouble 

> Judge Investigates Alex Jones' Legal Team After Sandy Hook Medical Records Are Leaked. Medical and psychiatric records of parents of children killed in the 2012 school massacre were among a document dump that included Jones' leaked texts.

The medical records bit seemed hinky to me when I first heard about them. There are some REALLY heavy-duty laws protecting medical records, so how did Jone's attorney even get them in the first place?

Politics, Trump, Documents, Why? 

Follow up: The Russians are now trolling us by claiming they have copies of the documents. (They might actually have them, but this is trolling either way.)

> Moscow Already 'Studying' Top-Secret Records From Trump Raid: Russian Media.

Show thread

Politics, Trump, Documents, Why? 

Missed one: Were at least some of those documents evidence of Trump's other criminality? Was he hiding them to avoid his own compromising secrets getting out? (For example, there's still the question of the translator's notes Trump confiscated after meeting privately with Putin.)

This also doesn't jibe with how the documents were stored. And, in that case, why not just destroy them and deny he ever had them?


Show thread

Politics, Trump, Documents, Why? 


Why did Trump take those documents in the first place; much less dump them in a basement storeroom, lie about having them, give back some of them and lie more about having the rest, admit to having the rest when subpoenaed but refuse to give them up, and finally force the DoJ's hand?

Was it all just so he could play victim this week? That's too convoluted for me to believe. Occam's Razor applies.

Let's open this up: Why do YOU think he did it?


Show thread

Politics, Trump, Documents, Why? 

I"m not the only one confused by all this, although some have latched onto the espionage angle, especially given the charges stated on the warrant:

> Was Trump Selling Access to Top Secret Documents?

If you apply Hanlon's Razor, the 'why' comes down to stupidity (and maybe the ego thing). But, in that case, why didn't Trump hand over the documents in June when subpoenaed for them? Just to be a dick?



Show thread

Politics, Trump, Documents, Why? 

Except, aside from ego, none of these motives seem to match with the lackadaisical manner the records were stored. (You could argue dumping them in a broom closet gives deniable access to spies visiting Mar-a-Lago.)

I'm out of ideas here. I suppose Trump may have had some explicable motivation other than ego or money or paying back the Russians or forcing the President of France to say nice things about him. But none of those seem to fit the facts well.


Show thread

Politics, Trump, Documents, Why? 

Was Trump really planning on selling USA secrets on the open market or to a specific buyer? There's a name for that: Espionage.

Really? I mean, there's always been this sneaking suspicion the Russians were involved even more deeply in Trump's political rise than we know, but really?

How about blackmail? Could Trump have kept documents that gave him an edge in negotiations or outright extort from others?

Possible I suppose. He's that kind of asshole.


Show thread

Politics, Trump, Documents, Why? 

Some have speculated he took them as keepsakes and mementos he could share while telling stories about his time in the Whitehouse.

What? Really? Photocopies wouldn't do? And why Top Secret TCI, much less the regular secret and confidential stuff?

Others suspect he meant to sell them, since 'grift' is Trump's middle name.

Possible, I suppose. I mean, the sharpie-marked map might go for good money on eBay. But consider the possible buyers for TCI docs…


Show thread

Politics, Trump, Documents, Why? 

> Trump’s Excuses for Hoarding Classified Documents Are Getting More Absurd.


1. Took documents he knew belonged to the National Archives

2. Including COMPARTMENTALIZED INFORMATION documents which are never supposed to leave secure facilities

3. Refused to return the documents, even under subpoena

Why? I'm thinking 'why did he do it' is probably the most important question we can ask right now.


THIS is why you either buy outright or use Open Source : because when you 'rent' software they can change the rules on you at any time.

> Local Simulation Feature To Be Removed From All Autodesk Fusion 360 Versions.

Fuck the whole idea of Software As A Service (SAAS), much less monthly licenses.

I've been earwormed for the last two days with Muddy Water's 'Rollin and Tumblin'.

Which would be annoying, except (a) it's a damn good song and (b) there are like a million versions of it to cycle through.

OTOH, I'm mostly 'hearing' the Cream version. Which is still pretty fine, mind you!

Obligatory, "Clapton is God," reference.

Poltics, Trump, Voter Poll, Hot Take 

Oh, I forgot to mention a sixth thing: threats of violence (and possible actual violence) in support of Trump from the far right are not going to help elect 'Trump approved' candidates.

TL;DR – Yeah, a third of the country are fucking idiots who will follow Trump all the way to Hell. But that doesn't give the GOP victories in swing states. I don't yet know if 'galvanizing the base' will hurt the GOP, but I really don't think it will move the needle their way.

Show thread

Poltics, Trump, Voter Poll, Hot Take 

3. In swing districts (aka middle-America suburbia) it's the Independents who decide the elections – and their opinion of Trump IS NOT GOOD (disclosure: I'm a proud Independent who has decided to never again vote Republican because of Trump)

4. The steady drumbeat of Trump's legal problems will continue to erode his standing with anyone but the Magahats; not everyone believes the conspiracy theories

5. And Trump's personal shitstorm is just starting


Show thread

Poltics, Trump, Voter Poll, Hot Take 

I actually considered *not* CW'ing this hot take, but: I've been seeing analysis indicating the Mar-a-Lago raid and other efforts to level consequences for Trump's actions is a 'gift' to the GOP, because it energizes their base.

I think that's bullshit. Let me count the ways:

1. The Magahat 'base' represents roughly a third of the electorate

2. Non-Trumpy conservatives still exist; and they aren't being served by the focus on Trump


Show thread

Poltics, Trump, Voter Poll 

> Poll: More registered voters approve of Mar-a-Lago search than disapprove.

This poll really underlines the problem the GOP faces in November, in terms of what the Independent voters who will decide close elections think.

And most of them think Donald Trump committed crimes while in office…

Politics, Mar-a-Lago Raid, Merrick Garland 

Link or it didn't happen:

> Merrick Garland says FBI files motion to unseal Trump Mar-a-Lago warrant.

Show thread
Show older